The year in review

You may have been hearing chatter in the news about home prices starting to rise. This could be the case  in some markets, particularly those that were hit the hardest like Nevada, Arizona, and Florida. In these markets home prices were so depressed there was no way to go but up. However I have not seen prices rising  in the New Bern area although they seem to be stabilizing and personally believe we are close to the bottom of the market. Homes are currently selling at around 1999-2000 price levels.

From 01-01-12 through 12-22-12 there have been 951 homes sold in Craven County. This compares to 930 during the same time frame in 2011. A little bump and certainly I welcome any positive news. During the same time period in 2011 there were 249 distressed properties, (bank owned, foreclosures, short sales), sold. In 2012 there have been 227 distressed properties sold, almost a 10% decrease. However, in Oct., Nov., Dec. 2012 saw a 17% increase in distressed property sales compared to the same time in 2011. It is impossible to have a housing recovery as long the rate of distressed properties sold is increasing. Lets hope the trend of the last 3 months ends soon.

In 2012 distress properties comprised 24% of the home sales in the Craven County market. Even though this is an improvement over 2011, (27%), in a healthy market this number probably would be in the 2-4% range. Nationwide distressed sales comprise about 25% of sales so were are not any worse than most areas if that makes you feel better. Lending guidelines were tightened up after the mortgage crash in 2008 and in the long run this will result in a decrease in foreclosures and ultimately help stabilize housing prices.

We have a long way to go, however, it appears we are moving in the right direction. We need for the economy to start improving and producing private sector jobs before we see home prices rise. Each year our population is growing and with that more folks are coming of the age to buy a home. There is undoubtedly a pent up demand for housing out there lurking and what is missing in a in a strong housing recovery are good jobs.

Homes sold in 2012 by price range,

$1000-$50000=97
$50001-$100000=183
$101000-$150000=245
$150100-$200000=258
$200100-$250000=134
$250100-$300000=53
$300100-$350000=20
$350100-$400000=19
$400100-$450000=8
$450100-$500000=3
$500100-$550000=4
$550100-$600000=3

For homes over $250,000 there is about a 21 month absorption rate. In other words, expect it to take 21 months to sell a home in this price range unless a home offers something unique. Retirees use to be a large portion of the buyers in this price range. Because they had to sell their homes at a reduced price to move here they are now buying less expensive homes. Active duty military officers  use to buy quite a few homes in this price range as well and now many now are opting to rent. All this makes for tough selling conditions for homes over $250,000.

If you have any questions about any particular price range or even sales in a particular subdivision let me know. I hope everyone has a blessed Christmas.

For more information on Real estate go to www.newbern-nc.info

What a year!

Steve and Jana Tyson would like to take this time to thank all of our customers we have had the opportunity to help this past year. We will close $15 million in Real Estate, or real close to that number, this year. This will put us in the top 5% of Realtors nationwide and we could not have done it without you. Thank each and every one of you for your business.

Have a great Christmas,

Real Estate Sales in Craven County for the past year

The following data shows a picture of the overall market in all of Craven County. My take is that it is still a strong buyers market. Combine that with unbelievable interest rates it is a great time to buy Real Estate. Not such a great time to sell, but homes are selling everyday.

• 830 homes currently for sale.
• 894 homes sold in the past year.
• 109 Commercial buildings and commercial lots for sale.
• 17   Commercial buildings and commercial lots sold in the past year.
• 463 Lots and or land for sale.
• 90   Lots and land parcels sold in the past year

I am hearing chatter about the Real Estate Market improving nationally, however the markets that seem to be improving are the markets that were hit the worst and just about had no where to go but up. My gut feeling is that we are bouncing along the bottom and where we go from here will depend on the amount of foreclosures dumped in the market and the stability of the job market.

October Home Sales

So how were October sales?

In October, 2012, there were a total of 102 homes sold in our MLS. Of those sold, 

1. $6000-$100,000=26

2. $201,000-$200,000=56

3. $201,000-$250,000=13

4. $251,000=$300,000=3

5. Over $300,000=4   Note-there are 269 homes over $300,000 for sale. 

Included in the total above were 13 New Home Sales

In October, 2011, there were a total of 86 homes sold in our MLS. Of those sold, 

1. $6000-$100,000=18

2. $201,000-$200,000=48

3. $201,000-$250,000=8

4. $251,000=$300,000=6

5. Over $300,000=6

Included in the total above were 18 New Home sales

Home affordability

Are we at or near the bottom of the market? I think so. I attended a national Keller Williams training a few weeks ago and speaking to Realtors in other markets I am starting to get the impression the worse is behind us. Some of the states that were hit the hardest seem to be on the rebound. 

While we won't know for certain when the market has hit its lowest point and starts moving up, most experts believe that interest rates can't go down much if any. That is a very important consideration to take into account. Lets say you are looking at a house currently listed at $200,000 and interest rates are 3.5 %. You think the market has not quite bottomed out and you are going to wait until it drops some more, say to $190,000. In the meantime interest rates tick up to 4.5%. You have cost yourself a lot of money with the increase in interest rates even f the price is reduced to $190,000.

When you consider interest rates, home affordability is at or near an all time low. What are you waiting for?

New Bern new home sales

The following shows new home sales in the New Bern market over the past several years.

2012 year to date New Home Sales
Total=202
Of these 14 sold for over $250,000.

2011 same time period New Home Sales
Total=192
Of these 14 sold for over $250,000.


2010 same time period New Home Sales
Total=254
Of these 13 sold for over $250,000.


2009 same time period New Home Sales
Total=256
Of these 32 sold for over $250,000.


2008 same time period New Home Sales
Total=303
Of these 64 sold for over $250,000.

Assorted Home sales for New Bern

The following information might suggest we are bouncing along the bottom in the current housing recession. I was at a national Keller Williams Convention 2 weeks ago and heard some encouraging comments from agents from other area of the country. One agent from Newark NJ said it was a Sellers Market there. Also heard Phoenix was moving in the right direction. It was one of the hardest areas in the nation.

Year to Date-Entire MLS Homes sold.

2012=985
2011=947
2010=970
2009=922

Year to Date-Entire MLS Homes Bank Owned sold.


2012=183
2011=189
2010=126
2009=56

Still way to many Bank Owned Properties being sold. I hope the worst of this is nearly behind us on REO and Short Sales. What is lacking in our country is a real economic recovery with jobs being created  and an expanding economy. Lets hope this process will begin soon.

Making a 19th Century Door: Or, Why do Modern Replacement Doors Look so Strange on 19th Century Homes

There are many differences between woodworking in today's machine age and the 19th century.  Carpenters and furniture makers today rely on measured drawings, dimensions, and precise measurements to help them plan and build things.  Before the Industrial Revolution, however, things were very different.  19th century house joiners relied on pattern books to be sure, but these books didn't contain measured plans with precise dimensions for Federal or Greek Revival doors, windows and moldings.  Instead, their pattern books had drawings with proportions. 

What do I mean by this?  Lets look at a 1797 plan book by Asher Benjamin and see.  If you wanted to build an interior door today you would buy a set of measured drawings for a 2/8, 2/10 or 3/0 door which would give you the standardized width of the stiles, bottom, top and lock rails, dimensions for the molding, etc.  If you look below at a plate from Benjamin's 18th century plan book, you will see that the drawings are far simpler.

Asher Benjamin, The Country Builder's Assistant
(1797)  plate 12.

The first thing to notice is the series of 9 marks beneath each door. Rather than dimensions, Benjamin instructs the joiner to divide the width of the door opening into 9 equal parts.  If you are building a 3/0 door, which is 36 inches in width (as in the example Benjamin gives here), you would have 9 parts of 4 inches each.  On the 4-panel door each stile, muntin and top rail is one part wide (or 4 inches), the bottom rail is 1 1/2 part wide (6 inches) and the lock rail is  2 1/2 parts wide (10 inches).   

The genius of this approach is its simplicity and flexibility.  If your door opening is an odd size like 2/9, 2/11 or 3/2 (as is common on older homes), you simply step off 9 parts on the door width with a pair of dividers and there you have your base measurement.  You then use the dividers to lay out the width of the stiles (1 divider step or part), the dimension of the bottom rail (1 1/2 divider step) and so on until you have your stock ready to cut and plane.   Regardless of how wide or narrow the door, the proportions of each component to the entire door are exactly the same.  

What's better yet is you don't even need a ruler or to know the dimension of the opening.   You simply mark the width of the opening on a scrap piece of wood, use your dividers to divide it into 9 parts and start laying out your door.  The idea of not knowing or needing the dimension of a door is hard for modern tradesmen to wrap their heads around, but in the 18th and 19th century this was standard procedure. 

Ca. 1849 Greek Revival Door

Why is this important? These differences in approach explain why modern replacement doors often look so odd in older homes.  In an age where everything is standardized (e.g. the width of door stiles and rails), when modern shops build odd-sized doors for older homes the proportions of the door parts are usually way off.  They just don't know the proportions and don't adjust their designs.

Whenever I visit an historic home I take careful measurements of doors, windows, molding and other millwork and determine the proportions of each piece. Then, if I make a hand-made door for a Greek Revival home I can check the measurements and proportions for doors in similar homes and use them to make the replacement.  Not only does my replacement door have the appropriate tool marks and construction for the 19th century, its proportions, molding and shape are also correct.

Fairfield Harbour Home Sales

Fairfield Harbour, a local golf and boating community was beat up pretty bad in the housing recession. Looks like they may be poised for a comeback of sorts. Currently there is only one new home for sale in Fairfield.


In the last year there were 62 homes that sold in FFH. Click the link below to see what sold.
http://www.easternncmls.com/new/maildoc/roscoe_1348574119-Sep-25-2012-7_55_19am.html
I believe a new home in the $175, 000 range, 1800-2000 feet, $20,000 lot would sell. There is only 1 new home for sale in FFH and it is $250,000. And right now I have the only sewer tap. Another plus is that there is no competition.
Other sales in the last year in areas where retirees often locate.
1.Riverbend-55
2.Greenbrier-32
3.Taberna-25
4.Trent Woods-58
5.Carolina Colours-11

New Bern Real Estate Update

Steve Tyson’s Real Estate Update

Neuse Harbour  Active homes for sale by price range Current number of homes on the market=9 Pending sales=3 Active homes for sale by price range $209,000-$250,000=2 $319,000=1 $,660,000-$1,225,000=6 There was 18 home that sold and closed in Neuse Harbour in the last 12 months. The most expensive house sold was $399,000.	Stately Pines Current homes on the market=6 Pending sales=0 Active homes for sale by price range $139,000-$200,000=4 $649,000-$699,000=2 There were 9 homes that sold and closed in Stately Pines in the last 12 months. The most expensive house sold was $244,000.
Carolina Pines Current homes on the market=13 Pending sales=4 Active homes for sale by price range $119,000-$$200,000=6 $212,000-$279,000=7 There were 19 homes that sold and closed in Carolina Pines in the last 12 months. The highest priced home sold was $281,000.	Tucker Creek Current homes on the market=3 Pending sales=2 Active homes for sale by price range $165,000=1 $259,000=1 $260,000=$1 There were 10 homes that sold and closed in Tucker Creek in the last 12 months. The highest priced home sold was $229,000.

Total homes sold January 1-Sept  22 2006 =1848

Total homes sold January 1-Sept  22 2007 =1552

Total homes sold January 1-Sept  22 2008=1170

Total homes sold January 1-Sept  22 2009=876

Total homes sold January 1-Sept  22  2010=924

Total homes sold January 1-Sept  22  2011=915

Total homes sold January 1-Sept  22 2012=939

There are currently 1374 homes listed for sale in our multiple listing service. We are selling homes at a rate of about 107 a month. .

Feel free to call or email me if you would like to have a customized absorption rate or a Comparable Market Analysis for your property. Home sales in each neighborhood can vary greatly.

Any suggestions to make this article better would be welcomed. I can be reached at SteveTyson@NCmove.com  And remember you can always visit me online at www.NewBern-NC.Info

                                      

Realtor Steve Tyson
The Tyson Group Realtors

Proven methods to sell your house

1. Home Warranty Policies

The thing that is most attractive to buyers is a home warranty policy. The good news is that this is also the most cost-effective incentive option for sellers, too.
Sellers can assure buyers that any unexpected repairs that fall under the warranty policy will be covered. A home warranty typically costs only a few hundred dollars for the seller and can offer the buyer a tremendous amount of peace of mind. There are a number of home warranty providers out there, so make sure you do your research to find the best provider for the home in question.

2. Assistance With Closing Costs

The economic and lending environments have created a situation in which many prospective buyers don’t have the cash required to cover their closing costs. Many times, the difference between a buyer being able to buy a home or having to pass it up can lie in the closing costs.
Sellers who are willing to contribute to the closing costs stand a much greater chance of attracting a larger pool of buyers. Sellers can decide how much they want to offer based on what makes financial sense for them and the prospective buyers. While this might be a bit more costly option than the home warranty, it can be equally as effective in sealing a deal.

3. Remodeling/Repair Credit

If your listing has a feature or flaw that repels buyers, consider offering a credit towards repairs or remodeling. If you are receiving feedback that buyers consistently don’t like a particular aspect of the floor plan or condition of a listing, then consider a credit. This gives you and your client a way to overcome a potential objection right up front. The more objections you can remove, the closer you get to a sale.
These were the top 3 most attractive incentives in according to people who actually purchased homes in 2011. For more, download this great handout on attractive buyer incentives.
The next time you are trying to sweeten the pot for a prospective buyer, consider these options with your sellers. These just might be the incentives you need to land that perfect buyer and close the deal.

Real estate Update

Steve Tyson’s Real Estate Update for 4 Subdivisions

Neuse Harbour  Active homes for sale by price range Current number of homes on the market=10 Pending sales=1 Active homes for sale by price range $190,000-$250,000=3 $295,000-$320,000=2 $,660,000-$1,095,000=5 There was 18 home that sold and closed in Neuse Harbour in the last 12 months. The most expensive house sold was $399,000.	Stately Pines Current homes on the market=6 Pending sales=0 Active homes for sale by price range $139,000-$200,000=4 $270,000-$699,000=3 There were 12 homes that sold and closed in Stately Pines in the last 12 months. The most expensive house sold was $244,000.
Carolina Pines Current homes on the market=15 Pending sales=3 Active homes for sale by price range $119,000-$$150,000=5 $169,000-$200,000=3 $200,000-262,000=6 $305,000=1 There were 20 homes that sold and closed in Carolina Pines in the last 12 months. The highest priced home sold was $255,000.	Tucker Creek Current homes on the market=3 Pending sales=2 Active homes for sale by price range $165,000=1 $259,000 $260,000 There were 10 homes that sold and closed in Tucker Creek in the last 12 months. The highest priced home sold was $229,000.

Total homes sold January 1-August  23 2007=1377

Total homes sold January 1-August  23 2008=1033

Total homes sold January 1-August  23 2009=751

Total homes sold January 1-August  23 2010=828

Total homes sold January 1-August  23.  2011=822

Total homes sold January 1-August  23 2012=835

There are currently 1360 homes listed for sale in our multiple listing service. We are selling homes at a rate of about 107 a month. .

Feel free to call or email me if you would like to have a customized absorption rate or a Comparable Market Analysis for your property. Home sales in each neighborhood can vary greatly.

Any suggestions to make this article better would be welcomed. I can be reached at SteveTyson@NCmove.com  And remember you can always visit me online at www.NewBern-NC.Info

                                      

Realtor Steve Tyson
The Tyson Group Realtors

Real Estate News

I would like to say the Real Estate Market is improving but to do so would not be accurate. In July there were 117 total sales in our MLS. Sales ranged from $27,000-$532,000. All this adds up to about a one year absorption rate, still a buyers market.

However, I am feeling some resistance to further decreases in prices. Seems like things were in somewhat of a free fall for several years and I think in many price ranges today prices are close to the bottom. Only time will tell.

With prices reasonable for the most part, and interest rates at historic lows, with a modest down payment you can buy a home cheaper than you can rent a home.

When will home prices start improving?

This question comes up quite often in my conversations with real estate prospects. My answer is always the same.
Real Estate prices will start improving when the economy starts growing and jobs are being created. The population of the US is growing and the growing population will require additional housing. Sooner or later, hopefully sooner, the demand of the additional growth in the population will put upward pressure on prices. But first, we need jobs and a growing economy.

New Bern Waterfront Homes

Waterfront Homes for Sale

In the past year I have sold 18 waterfront homes and believe we are starting to see some signs that waterfront home prices are starting to stabilize and could start tracking up. When you combine prices and interest rates owning a waterfront home has never been more affordable. If you are on the sideline, you better get in the hunt or you might wait to long. So call the New Bern waterfront expert today to help you find the best waterfront property for you.

New Bern and area home sales

Currently, there are 1387 homes listed for sale in our MLS System. Of these 90 are listed as Bank Owned, and 48 are listed as Short Sales.

During the past year there were 1214 homes sold in our MLS.  This equates to a little over a year absorption rate, not good news if you are a seller. However each price range varies in days on the market before a sale takes place and list price to sells price ratios. If you happen to be in a good price range you could expect to sell in under 120 days. When a house is priced to sell, buyers and buyers agents realize this, and will often make an offer closer to the asking price.

Although the number of bank owned properties is about as high as I have seen it, it is relatively low compared to the market as a whole, about 6%. Interestingly enough, bank owned properties accounted for about 16% of sales in the last year. This probably indicates that banks will get aggressive on their sales price especially when they are not sold in a reasonable time frame.

Year to date home sales are about the same as last year volume wise. Total dollar volume is however down 3%. I am not sure, but believe, this is due to home prices still sliding south.

New Home Sales


There are 154 new homes listed for sale in our MLS. In the last 365 days  237 new homes sold. Of these new home sales, 107 were priced from $150,000-$200,000 This compares to 282 new home sales in the year prior and 330 the year before that. Why are sales down 50% from 2 years ago? I believe this is largely due to banks being very cautious about construction loan lending, more folks looking at renting instead of buying, and attractive existing home prices.

I have read some words of encouragement regarding some housing markets, especially those that were hit the hardest. However, I believe the market will improve when the economy starts to create jobs, and I am not real confident the current President knows how to do this.

Wall Plaster in a 19th Century Log Cabin

When we think about the American frontier, images of isolation, privation and strenuous labor can come to mind.  Life on the frontier certainly was difficult and dangerous.  A homesteader’s first year was often a frantic race to establish his family before the winter’s first snow began to fall.  His first job was to cut timber which cleared land for planting crops and provided logs for building a cabin.  The wife and children might stay with a neighbor or even remain back east while their new house was being built and crops and garden planted.  Conditions in their new log home were primitive as most cabins had only dirt floors, almost no furniture and only a small, cast iron stove for heat and cooking.  However, once established in their new home pioneer families were eager to improve their cabins with siding, wooden floors, paint and plaster.  Even on the frontier people did their best to follow the latest fashions and keep up with the Joneses.

German immigrants Wilhelm and Sophia Ney homesteaded along the Minnesota River just east of Henderson, MN in the 1850s.  Wilhelm built a large 22’x 32’ cabin from maple and basswood logs in 1855 which served as the family's home until he built a larger house out of the local, cream colored Chaska brick.  The old cabin had been cocooned in board and batten siding and converted into a horse barn. However, despite being used to stable horses for many decades, remnants of the original daubing and lath and lime plaster have survived on the rear wall.

Exterior of the Ney cabin showing half dovetail notching and board and batten siding.

The cabin's  interior showing the hewn logs and rafters and plaster remnants.

19^th century plaster was made from lime, sand and sometimes animal hair and applied in up to three coats over wooden lath.  The plaster was mixed on site (the lime often coming from local deposits of limestone) and lath split or riven from trees felled in the area.  Wilhelm Ney split his lath from small branches of willow trees which were abundant along the nearby Minnesota River. The lath was nailed directly to the log walls with a straw backing which allowed the lime plaster to adhere more easily. 

Plaster remnants, lath and wooden pegs used to hold tack for the Neys' horses.

Close-up of the lath, plaster and straw.

Once the newly plastered walls had cured they could be white washed, painted with brightly tinted oil or kalsomine paint or even covered with fashionable wallpaper bought at the local dry goods store.   Indeed, some plaster, paint, siding and a new frame-and-panel door could make a log cabin look as refined as a frame house built in town.   Only its thick, log walls might betray its humble beginnings.

The Ney log cabin can be visited at the Ney Nature Center located just a few miles east of Henderson, MN along State Highway 19.